Saturday, December 31, 2011

Harry Dent interview (Dec 30, 2011)

Dent was one of the pioneers in using demographic data to forecast stock market returns. He's now predicting a crash in 2012 with the S&P falling 30-50%. While this interview is worth listening to, I would not take Dent too seriously. He has called great booms and great crashes before and apparently understands that the best way to get the media's attention is via out-sized predictions. Dent also managed a mutual fund which generated poor returns.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Soros: Gold on the brink of a bear market?

CNBC: 2011 Best and Worst Calls

CNBC highlights several short calls (Chanos, Einhorn) that worked out well. Bank of America killed several investors this year. John Paulson gets deserved mention for his awful performance this year.

An interview with Van Hoisington

Hoisington Investment Management, based in Texas, is an interesting investment manager that was recently interviewed by Barron's. They only invest in Treasuries and have been long the long-bond for over 2 decades! (As a side-note, it appears that their website hasn't been updated for two decades either). They have been spot-on with their investment thesis and continue to see disinflationary patterns given high indebtedness in the U.S., low savings rates, low income growth, and a slowing global economy.

Some quotes from the interview:
  • No matter where you look, there is a global recession starting.
  • We figure 2012 GDP growth will be 0.5% to 1% in real terms, and the core [inflation] rate will be close to zero as we approach mid-year. We wouldn't be surprised to see the 30-year bond trade down toward 2%, and the 10-year at 1.25% to 1.5%...
  • The unintended consequences of QE2 were so harmful to the U.S. economy that Mr. Bernanke should tell Congress what University of Chicago professor John Cochrane said he should: That there's nothing more they can do.

Jim Rogers on CNBC

"Agriculture will be a great place for the next 10-20 years"
"I don't see much reason to buy stocks when I can buy commodities"


Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Anthony Crescenzi (PIMCO) interview

Crescenzi is an Executive VP at PIMCO and the author of several books, including Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint, The Strategic Bond Investor, and Investing From the Top Down. In this interview, he advises investors to be selectively offensive and generally defensive in 2012.

Doug Kass's surprises for 2012

All-time high for the S&P 500?


The write-up can be found here.

Rare interview with legendary investor Irving Kahn

Kahn, a value investor in the Buffett mold, is 106 years old and still an active investor!

Michael Harkins interview on Bloomberg

Michael Harkins, president of Levy Harkins, talks about investing and hyperinflation...

Thursday, December 22, 2011

AI CIO: Is Ray Dalio The Steve Jobs of Investing?

The full article can be found here.

Business as usual ends at the gates of Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates. Inside the $125 billion hedge fund’s Westport, Connecticut-based headquarters, radically different behavior at an individual and corporate level rarely ceases to astonish. Cameras rest in every cranny; almost all meetings are recorded. Meetings are nasty, brutish, and long. One individual casts a long shadow over every decision, large or small. The question of the day is—always—What Would Ray Do?

Interview with Steve Mnuchin of OneWest Bank

Steven Mnuchin, chairman of OneWest Bank, talks about the outlook for the company created from the operations of failed California lender IndyMac. ohn Paulson, Michael Dell, and Dune Capital bought IndyMac assets on the cheap in 2008. OneWest has subsequently bought First Federal and La Jolla Bank.

The Top 10 Table Tennis plays of the year!

Amazing video from Table Tennis Daily:

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Daniel Kahneman video

Daniel Kahneman is a Nobel prize winner in Economics and a behavioral expert.

Russell Napier's Greatest Hits

Napier, who works at CLSA, is a solid economic historian and the author of the book "Anatomy of a Bear."  he sees the S&P 500 eventually bottoming at a level of 400 (it's currently at 1240+).


Eric Jackson on BNN discussing RIMM

Research in Motion, maker of the once iconic Blackberry, is now on its death bed, not withstanding the latest news of Microsoft and Amazon taking a look at the firm at some point in the recent past.

Here, Eric Jackson discusses the company's prospects with BNN in Canada. Unfortunately, they don't allow embedded videos, so you will have to click on the link.

[Disclaimer: I have no position in the stock, but it is on my watch list. I may become a buyer at the $10 level given the value of RIMM's patents and enterprise messaging platform]

The FIRE Economy

Surprisingly, according to this WSJ article, the finance sector's share of the economy is at a new high at 8.4% of GDP!

Combined, finance and insurance firms accounted for 8.4% of U.S. gross domestic product last year, according to the Commerce Department, eclipsing the peak it hit in 2006. In 1950, the financial sector accounted for just 2.8% of GDP.

Having worked in the industry, I can say that it doesn't add much value, and net of the rents it extracts in terms of fees, it actually provides negative value in aggregate. This is even worse on a risk-adjusted basis, since a large financial sector also implies greater leverage in the economy, as we saw all too well in 2008-09.

I, for one, would not be sad to see the sector's share shrink back to 5% or so, which was the level in the early 80s before we let the FIRE economy get out of control.


A conversation with Charlie Munger

An oldie but a goodie: Charlie Munger at the University of Michigan in 2010


Tuesday, December 20, 2011

John Mauldin: Europe will fall apart in 2012

Mauldin publishes the excellent (and free) Thoughts From The Front Line

China's Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped

China's Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped - Patrick Chovanec: China's real estate market has overheated in the past. But Beijing has repeatedly said it would "cool" things down; it never did. Now, as the market corrects itself, a large part of the country's economy is convulsing, while sending shockwaves through the global economy.

Paul Hickey (Bespoke Investments) interview

Bespoke Investment Group's Paul Hickey on how the election impacts the markets

Nouriel Roubini's Plea to Policymakers: We Can’t Risk Another Year of Delay

History of short-term rates in the US

Interesting, especially the huge spikes in the 19th century. Are we at an inflection point now?

Ed Yardeni on CNBC

Jan Hatzius on CNBC

Hatzius is Goldman's chief economist

Monday, December 19, 2011

Classic Hugh Hendry Video on China (2009)

The FT had a piece today (Hedge fund alarm bells are ringing over China) that talks about how hedge funds are increasingly looking at China as the next source of global turmoil and sending their analysts over for first-hand field reports.

Hendry was one of the first people to bring attention to potential issues in the Middle Kingdom, and here's a classic from 2009 that's been getting some hits on YouTube lately.

Chinese Economy 2009

IBM’s 5 innovations for the next 5 years

"IBM 5 in 5" is a list of innovations that have the potential to change the way people work, live and interact during the next five years. This year's five in five are: People power will come to life; you will never need a password again; mind reading is no longer science fiction; the digital divide will cease to exist; and junk mail will become priority mail.

Mo El-Erian of PIMCO on Bloomberg (Dec 19, 2011)

El-Erian talks to Tom Keene about the European crisis and the market outlook for 2012.

Stewart Paterson interview

Stewart Paterson of hedge fund Riley Paterson on Bloomberg's "On the Move Asia"

Gary Shilling on Europe (Dec 19, 2011)

Shilling sees a deep recession in the Eurozone.

Largest banks over time

An interesting graphic – the biggest banks in 1991 were primarily Japanese with no US bank in the top 10. Now, the largest banks are either Chinese or too-big-to-fail US banks, while there are no Japanese bank in the top 10.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2012

To me, the most interesting are:

#4 – Australia goes into recession
#7 – EURCHF at 1.50
#9 – Baltic Dry Ice doubles
#10 – Wheat prices double

"Should some of the predictions come to pass, it would make 2012 a year of tremendous change. We would like nothing more than to be proven wrong on negative views, but only if they are replaced with something better than the current central bank and government-manipulated paradigm."

The pdf can be downloaded here.

1. The stock of Apple Inc plummets 50 percent from 2011 high
Going into 2012, Apple will find itself faced with multiple competitors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft/Nokia, and Samsung across its most innovative products, the iPhone and iPad. Apple will be unable to maintain its market share of 55 percent (three times as much as Android) and 66 percent on the iOS and iPad.

2. EU declares extended bank holiday during 2012
The December EU Treaty changes prove insufficient to solve EU funding needs - particularly those in Italy - and the EU debt crisis returns with a vengeance by mid-year. In response, the stock market finally caves in and drops 25 percent in short order, prompting EU politicians to call an extended bank holiday - closing all European exchanges and banks for a week or more.

3. A yet unannounced candidate takes the White House
In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot managed to take advantage of a recessionary economy and popular disgust with US politics and reap 18.9 percent of the popular vote. Three years of Obama has brought too little change and only additional widespread disillusionment with the entire US political system, and conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone with a strong programme for real change throws his or her hat in the ring early in 2012 and snatches the presidency in November in one of the most pivotal elections in US history, taking 38 percent of the popular vote.

4. Australia goes into recession
The effects of the slowing up-and-coming Asian giant ripple through Asia Pacific push other countries into recession. If there ever was a country dependent on the well-being of China it is Australia with its heavy dependence on mining and natural resources. And as China's demand for these goods weakens, Australia is pushed into a recession, which is then exacerbated as the housing sector finally experiences its long overdue crash - a half decade after the rest of the developed world.

5. Basel III and regulation force 50 bank nationalisations in Europe
As 2012 begins, pressure will mount on the European banking system as new capital requirements and regulatory pressure force banks to deleverage in a great hurry. This creates a fire sale on financial assets as there are few takers in the market. A total freeze of the European interbank market forces nervous savers to make bank-runs, as depositors distrust deposit guarantees from insolvent sovereigns. More than 50 banks end up on government balance sheets and several known commercial bank brands cease to exist.

6. Sweden and Norway replace Switzerland as safe havens
As we saw with Switzerland, becoming a safe haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks to a country's economy. The capital markets of both countries are far smaller than Switzerland, but the Swiss are aggressively devaluing their currency and money managers are looking for new safe havens for capital. Flows into the two countries' government bonds on safe haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive 10-year rates there to more than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German Bunds.

7. Swiss National Bank wins and catapults EURCHF to 1.50
Switzerland's persistency in fighting the appreciation of its currency will continue to pay off in 2012. With Swiss fundamentals - particularly export related - continuing to suffer mightily in 2012 from past CHF strength, the SNB and government bear down further to prevent more collateral damage and introduce extensions to existing programmes and even negative interest rates to trigger sufficient capital flight from the traditional safe haven of Switzerland to engineer a move in EURCHF as high as 1.50 during the year.

8. USDCNY rises 10 percent to 7.00
As marginal returns from building million-inhabitant ghost towns diminish and exporters struggle with razor-thin margins due to the advancing CNY China gets to the brink of a "recession", meaning 5-6 per cent GDP growth. Chinese policymakers come to the rescue of exporters by allowing the CNY to decline against a US Dollar - buoyed by its safe-haven status amid slowing global growth and an on-going Eurozone sovereign debt crisis - and send the pair up to 7.00 for a 10 percent increase.

9. Baltic Dry Index rises 100 percent
Lower oil prices in 2012 could lead to an increase in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses go down. Brazil and Australia are expected to expand iron ore supply, further leading to lower prices and therefore higher import demand from China to satisfy its insatiable industrial production. In combination with monetary easing this leads to a massive spike in iron ore demand.

10. Wheat prices to double in 2012
The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having been the worst performing crop in 2011. With 7 billion people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle, bad weather across the world will unfortunately return and make it a tricky year for agricultural products. Wheat especially will rally strongly as speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short positions on record, will help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.

John Taylor of FX Concepts on Bloomberg (December 15, 2011)

John Taylor runs FX Concepts, the largest currency hedge fund in the world.He's been consistently bearish on the Euro and thinks that it will decline to parity vs. the $. It should be noted that short Euro is probably THE most crowded trade out there currently.

Learning languages online - the end of Rosetta Stone?

After re-purposing CAPTCHA so each human-typed response helps digitize books, Luis von Ahn wondered how else to use small contributions by many on the Internet for greater good. At TEDxCMU, he shares how his ambitious new project, Duolingo, will help millions learn a new language while translating the Web quickly and accurately -- all for free.

Excellent Jeff Gundlach presentation "To Have And Have Not"

Gundlach, of course, is the head of DoubleLine and a well known fixed income manager who had a rather acrimonious split from staid, old TCW.
12-13-11 JEG Webcast Have and Have Nots - FINAL

Peter Thiel on CNBC

Peter Thiel's 20 Under 20
Peter Thiel is an early investor in Facebook, Zynga, and Linkedin. He questions the value of going to college, and instead is offering $100,000 scholarships to 20  bright people who decide not to attend college and instead start a business.


Thursday, December 15, 2011

Robert Merton on Bloomberg

Robert (Bob) Merton, a Nobel prize winner in economics, talks about possible risks posed by hedge funds to financial markets and Europe's sovereign debt crisis (November 17, 2011).

Jim Grant on Bloomberg (November 10, 2011)

The incomparable Jim Grant, publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, was on Bloomberg on November 10, 2011. He talked about the European crisis, farm land, and Fed policy

Bill Nygren on Bloomberg

Nygren manages the Oakmark Select fund. He has a reputation as an astute stock-picker, but he got his behind handed to him in 2008 after he stubbornly refused to sell dogs like WAMU. Overall, I would stay away from his fund (and most other active mutual funds) -- most people are better served by purchasing a large cap index fund instead.

Julian Robertson on CNBC (December 15, 2011)

Kyle Bass: Latest Hayman Capital Letter (December 14, 2011)

Thanks again to the invaluable ZeroHedge.
Hayman Capital Letter Dec 14

Michael Platt (BlueCrest) on Bloomberg

Michael Platt, founder of the $30B hedge fund BlueCrest, says that most European banks are insolvent, and that the situation will worsen in 2012 as the region’s debt crisis accelerates.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

A profile of Richard Rainwater

Richard Rainwater is a Texan billionaire that very few people know about. A consummate deal maker, he has developed several well known proteges, including Eddie Lampert of ESL and David Bonderman of TPG. This excellent article in Fortune Magazine (The fight of Richard Rainwater's life) chronicles his life and career, as well as his ongoing attempts to fight his medical condition - Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP).

NPR: Follow Digital Breadcrumbs To 'Big Data' Gold

A report on "Big Data" on NPR.

Mary Buffett on Warren Buffett's Investment Strategy

Mary Buffett is Warren Buffett's ex-Daughter-in-Law, and she talks to Bloomberg about his investment process. Apparently, he's a big fan of Mastercard.

Kyle Bass on CNBC (Dec 14, 2011)

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Kyle Bass interview “Betting on a Collapse”

Kyle Bass interview on BNN Canada Betting on a Collapse Dec 13, 2011

The always entertaining Howard Davidowitz on The Daily Ticker

Howard Davidowitz is a retail expert and a real character



Larry Fink and Bill Gross discussion

Hosted by UCLA's Anderson School of Business. Both men are Anderson alums.


Notes from the event:


On parallels to 2008

·         Bill Gross doesn’t see a “2008 moment” occurring, although he acknowledges that we are currently witnessing deleveraging in the global marketplace as well as a flight to safety and liquidity. He sees a structural problem across the developed world with a lack of aggregate demand, high debt levels, and an ageing of the population which indicate a peaking of consumption and a lack of demand over the next 10-15 years (essentially PIMCO’s “new normal” thesis).
·         Larry Fink sees 2011 as a continuation of the 2008-09 period in that we are continuing to see deleveraging. Fears of 2008 are still in the psyche of investors, but de-risking is a “natural” phenomenon and he sees much of this fear priced into markets via low PE ratios. He sees lower global growth of 3.5%, but that still translates to 7% to 7.5% equity returns going forward.

On Europe
·         Bill Gross notes that the ECB is dominated by Germany and its philosophy of tight money and low inflation, which limits the central bank’s ability to offer a “Draghi put” (in the same vein as the so-called “Bernanke Put”). The ECB doesn’t believe that we cannot solve a debt crisis with more debt, while the U.S. thinks otherwise. Overall he doesn’t see a “determinable outcome” since the situation is in flux and dangerous.
·         Larry Fink thinks Germany has been playing its cards well by forcing regime changes and greater budgetary responsibility in Europe, and in making Spain and Italy responsive to the capital markets. However, he thinks this is a “dangerous” game with high stakes, and Germany ultimately doesn’t want to see an abandonment of the Euro which would mean the bankruptcy of every financial institution and other corporations as well since their debt is denominated in Euros.

On the risks of Europe to the US Economy
·         Bill Gross believes that risk from the Eurozone to the US ranks “right at the top.” As the reserve currency and with an economy that is actually growing, investors have continued to buy U.S. debt. However, given the $60T of unfunded entitlement liabilities, high debt levels, deficits, and interest rates at the zero bound, the US is at risk from its own policies as well, and not just Europe.

On the US Economy
·         Bill Gross believes that the U.S. has too much debt and will need to either balance the budget, raise taxes, or reflate. He would “invest elsewhere” in this environment. He believes that the current leadership needs to emphasize investment over consumption in their policies. The U.S. needs to make “things” not paper, and become competitive globally.
·         Larry Fink agrees that the U.S. needs to become more than just a consumer economy. The country needs more infrastructure investments and should consider converting Freddie and Fannie real estate to rentals. He sees the same pitfalls as Gross but is less bearish, believing that the U.S. has a unique culture of entrepreneurship and vitality that has given rise to firms such as Facebook. The U.S. is still the intellectual capital of the world and its productivity could continue to be a differentiator.
·         Gross counters that we haven’t seen significant job creation from this innovation which is troubling.
·         Fink thinks that the jobs situation will stabilize once we find stability in housing, which is likely 2-3 years away. On a positive note, we now have 4M fewer vacant housing than the 8M that we had after the crisis. Having a broader immigration policy would also stimulate the economy.

On their trust in government
·         Bill Gross is a disenchanted, registered Republican who voted for Obama, but now he would “vote for neither” party. He thinks Washington DC is dominated by lobbyists, and that Democrats and Republicans are two sides of the same coin.
·         Larry Fink says that one can be against specific policies and politicians but you still have to take an active role in shaping policy.

On Occupy Wall Street
·         Bill Gross said he supports labor over capital and main street over wall street. Capital has benefited at the expense of labor for several decades (a topic he covered in a recent monthly letter).
·         Larry Fink also likes OWS, seeing “fringe element symmetry” with the tea party.  The financial community and politicians let people down and while the financial community has taken its share of the blame, he would like to see politicians admit to their mistakes as well.

On the Debt Super Committee
·         Larry Fink  would like to educate people about entitlements and also seriously address reform by raising the retirement age, raising taxes, and changing the corporate tax rate (he believe that the corporate tax rate issue may be addressed this Wednesday). He believes that too much of the burden is being placed on the shoulder of young people, so we may continue to see protests.

On Investment Strategies
·         Bill Gross sees an environment of “financial repression” in Developed Markets i.e. persistent negative real rates to allow the government to get out its debt hole. Without high economic growth, returns from financial assets will not match their past returns and will likely return 4%-5% vs. the historic 8%-9% returns.
·         Larry Fink sees 7% returns and thinks that long-term investors should stay out of bonds. He would not follow traditional equity-fixed income allocations and would rather concentrate his portfolio on dividend paying multinational corporations that derive a large proportion of their revenue oversees, especially for investors with longer time horizons.The only way pensions can support a higher bond allocation is by doubling their current contributions. Increasing the allocation to equities implies that one would have to accept more risk, but he thinks that risk is priced into the low PE ratios of equities today.
·         Bill Gross thinks that the key question is whether developed markets are successful in their reflation attempts. Producing 4.5% nominal GDP is not a slam dunk given Japan’s experience (although they made policy mistakes along the way that exacerbated the problem). If reflation efforts are unsuccessful, he would recommend sticking with higher quality and safer investments. If reflation efforts are successful, then he likes equities given their superior ability to cope with inflation. In his personal portfolio he owns a substantial amount of municipal bonds and global growth companies.

On What They Admire About Each Other
·         Bill Gross envies Blackrock’s huge ETF and Equity business lines and would like PIMCO to emulate their success.
·         Larry Fink admires Bill’s “quest for ideas and his process of investing.” He also admires his track record, longevity, and influence.

On What Motivates Them
·         Bill Gross is famous for asking interviewees if they are motivated by Money, Fame, or Power. Personally, he’s motivated by Fame, which he defines as gaining the respect of others.
·         Larry Fink says he’s motivated by gaining the respect of others as well.

Q&A – On Federal Reserve Policy
·         Larry Fink supported QE1 and QE2 but thinks Operation Twist was a mistake. The Fed should consider counter-cyclical regulatory supervision i.e. having more Americans qualify for loans by reducing required FICO scores and relaxing other policies.
·         Bill Gross thinks Bernanke recognizes this which is why he asked for more assistance from fiscal policy. While Gross believe in Austrian economics, he thinks loose monetary policy is justified at this time.

Q&A – On the effect of lower rates on Pensions and Life Insurance Companies
·         Bill Gross thinks lower rates are a problem but it’s likely that the Fed weighed the impact of Operation Twist on Pensions and Life Insurance Companies prior to making the move, and they probably decided that it would be manageable overall. He thinks that while higher rates may help their portfolios, higher rates will probably arise from inflation expectations rather than any direct Fed policy.

Q&A – On the “Japanization” of America
·         Larry Fink thinks there are significant differences in that compared to Japanese zombie banks our banks are in much better shape having built up their capital base. However, we could see persistent deflation a la Japan if we can’t generate growth. He also notes that not enough attention is given to Defined Contribution plans, which are a very important source of savings and Americans just aren’t putting enough away. Japan is the second largest creditor economy but is now making the shift to from saver to spender.
·         Bill Gross also sees several significant difference especially with respect to demographics. While our demographics are in better shape, we are still an ageing society, which will lead to problems going forward.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Taleb on Bloomberg (October 2011)

Taleb on Bloomberg

Eddie Lampert on a BigThink Panel

Members of the Taking the Longview: A Conversation About the Future of the Economy panel include Lampert, Eric Schmidt (Google), Larry Summers, Stephen DeBerry, and Mellody Hobson (Ariel).

Columbia University Investing Discussion

Columbia University Investing Discussion
video platformvideo managementvideo solutionsvideo player

TEDTalks:Does democracy stifle economic growth?

Does democracy stifle economic growth? A comparison of India and China



Google Talks: Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman is a top behavioralist and the author of Thinking, Fast and Slow


Correlation vs. Causation

Nice image from BusinessWeek

"3 and 1/2 hours": The single best thing we can do for our health?

3 and 1/2 hours: What is the single best thing we can do for our health?


Friday, December 9, 2011

Michael Mauboussin on Consuelo Mack,

Mauboussin is the chief strategist at Legg Mason and the author of a couple of well-received books.

Steve Forbes interviews Whitney Tilson (Part 2)

(Part 1 of the interview can be found here)


The transcript can be found here

Mark Dow on The Daily Ticker (Dec 9, 2011)

"These fiscal fixes will not fix the problem"
"It's not a problem of leadership, it's a problem of design (the single currency)"
"The (real) problem is growth"

Jim Chanos on CNBC (Dec 9, 2011)

China's currency reserves are not "free money" - there are liabilities against those reserves. Also, the Chinese banking system "is built on quicksand."

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Lakshman Achuthan on Bloomberg (Dec 8, 2011)

Lakshman "Mr. Recession" Achuthan checks back in with Tom Keene back and says we need a year to see if his recession call on Sept 30 proves to be right.

Niall Ferguson interview with Tom Keene (Dec 8, 2011)

Mighty Niall (apparently his close friends call him Nigel) chats with Tom Keene (aka Chatty Cathy) on Bloomberg:

Marc Lasry interview on CNBC

Marc Lasry heads up Avenue Capital and has a well-deserved reputation as one of the sharpest distressed guys out there.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Friday, December 2, 2011

David Winters interview on CNBC

Winters, a Michael Price disciple, runs the excellent Wintergreen fund, one of the few active mutual funds worth investing in (although I wish it has a lower expense ratio).

Hugh Hendry interview at LSE

(HT ValueWalk) Awesome Hugh Hendry interview. The man may be quirky, but he's definitely an original thinker.

Hugh Hendry, Eclectica Asset Management from LSE SU AIC on Vimeo.

Steve Forbes interviews Whitney Tilson

(Part 2 of the interview can be found here)
Part I

The transcript can be found here

Btw, the so-called "Anti-Tilson" trade – Long Green Mountain Coffee, Short Netflix - has been a fantastic winner. GMCR is up 4.45% today while NFLX is down 1.19%.

Bob Janjuah on Bloomberg

Bob the bear's back! Portugal and Greece will default next year.

Roger Garrison: The Case Against Central Banking

Roger Garrison is an econ prof at Auburn University.

Jan Hatzius interview on Bloomberg

Hatzius is a smart cookie even though he works at a an investment bank (Goldman, in this case) - most mainstream economist opinions are worthless and detrimental to your wealth.

Carson Block (CNBC) “Red Flags in Chinese Stocks” (November 29, 2011)

Carson Block interviewed on CNBC “Red Flags in Chinese Stocks” (November 29, 2011)


David Rosenberg interview on Bloomberg

Rosie is one of the sharpest economists out there.

Mark Holowesko on Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack

Noted value investor Mark Holowesko (of Templeton fame) was interviewed on Consuelo Mack's excellent WealthTrack show. Definitely worth checking out:


Thursday, December 1, 2011

Kyle Bass interview from 2010 (CNBC)



Author James Gleick on his book `The Information'

Gleick talks about his book, "The Information: a History, a Theory, a Flood."

David Rosenberg interview on Bloomberg

He's joined by Komal Sri-Kumar of TCW

Bloomberg interview on the US housing market

Michelle Meyer (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) and Laurie Goodman (Amherst Securities)  talk about the US housing market

John Taylor (FXConcepts) interview on Bloomberg

Taylor talks about the outlook for the euro and the European sovereign debt crisis.

Paul Tudor Jones speech

Jim Rogers on Bloomberg

Ol' Jimmy Rogers is short equities and long commodities


Kyle Bass's (Hayman Capital) Q3 Letter: Imminent Defaults

Kyle Bass: Imminent Defaults
Hayman_Nov2011

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Bill Gross interview on CNBC

Papa Gross was on CNBC today. Here's the accompanying article. His monthly newsletter just came out as well.

His tag-team-buddy Mo El-Erian was on CNBC in a separate interview as well.


Saturday, November 26, 2011

Seth Klarman (Baupost) interviewed by Charlie Rose

Seth Klarman, a legendary value investor and the head of The Baupost Group, is the author of Margin of Safety, a classic value investing text that is out of print and extremely pricey on Amazon.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Interview with Wu Zhijian of Woodsford Capital

Wu Zhijian, CEO of Woodsford Capital Management has an excellent presentation (China into 2011: Bumpy Road Aheadon the slowdown in China from Nov 2010 as well as a recent piece (China’s Reaction to European Debt Crisis) updating his thesis. A must-read!

William Cohan interview on Bloomberg

Cohan talks about Jefferies with Peter Tchir, founder of TF Market Advisors.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Dick Bove says bank stocks are cheap

"On a fundamental basis, it's almost impossible to believe that these stocks are not dramatically underpriced"